Abdul Basit Alvi
The question of whether Azad Jammu and Kashmir is about to become a province of Pakistan has recently gained unusual attention, and I want to explain my thinking on this matter in more detail because the rumour has spread widely and many people are confused. A wave of news appeared on social media and in a few print media outlets. The claim was that AJK is going to become a province of Pakistan. It was also said that some constitutional amendment is going to be approved soon in this regard. For me, logically speaking, this is not more than false propaganda or disinformation. I want to break down my reasoning step by step so that the reader can see why I have reached this conclusion. I am not a constitutional expert, but I can apply simple logic and look at the facts in front of us. And the facts do not support the claim at all.
The first and most obvious problem is the contradiction with Pakistan’s own position on Kashmir. Pakistan itself opposed India’s decision of August 5, 2019, when India cancelled the special status of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan called that decision illegal, unilateral, and a violation of UN resolutions. Pakistan went to the world and argued that no side can change the status of Kashmir on its own. It would be contradictory for Pakistan to do the same thing now with AJK. That contradiction alone makes the recent wave of claims highly suspicious. If Pakistan were to absorb AJK as a province, India would immediately point the finger and say that Pakistan did exactly what it accused India of doing. Our diplomats would have no answer. Our friends in the world would be embarrassed. Our enemies would celebrate. No serious leadership would walk into such a trap. This is why I say the rumour does not make logical sense.
Another important point is that making a province or provinces requires a lot of homework and consensus. We have seen this in the current discussion about making new provinces in Pakistan. There are proposals for new provinces in Punjab, in Sindh, and elsewhere. Each proposal has taken years of debate. Each proposal has faced resistance from one quarter or another. Each proposal has needed studies on administrative feasibility, financial viability, and political consensus. It is not something that can be done in days and minutes without proper homework and consensus. Province-making is a serious constitutional and administrative exercise. It involves legal experts, political stakeholders, and broad public acceptance. It cannot be rushed through on the basis of rumours. The very nature of the claim, therefore, does not fit the normal process of state decision-making. When a state creates a province, it does not hide it. It announces it. It debates it. It legislates it. It implements it in phases. The claim that this is being done quietly, soon, and without public knowledge is against the very rules of how states make such decisions.
AJK and Pakistan are practically one and united. There is remarkable unity between the residents of AJK and the people of Pakistan. I do not see any logical need to make AJK a province. The relationship already works in a framework that has served both sides for decades. The people of AJK have their own assembly, their own government, their own courts, and their own institutions. At the same time, they are represented in the affairs of Pakistan and they enjoy the full support of Pakistan in every field. The youth of AJK serve in the Pakistan Army and in other institutions. The students of AJK study in Pakistani universities. The traders of AJK do business across Pakistan. The families of AJK are linked by blood to families in Pakistan. This is not a relationship that needs a new label. It is a relationship that works. Of course, the day will come, inshallah very soon, when IIOJK will get rid of Indian illegal occupation. The whole of Kashmir will become a part of Pakistan. That is the real goal, and it is a goal that requires patience, diplomacy, and steady support for the people of Kashmir. The recent wave of misinformation and false propaganda about making AJK a province is nothing more than a political and anti-state agenda.
The heinous aim of such attempts is to create chaos, anarchy and division in AJK. Another aim is to create a hate factor against Pakistan and the Pakistan Army in AJK. Banned JAAC and nationalist elements of AJK are also behind such heinous attempts. Their aim is just to spread hate against Pakistan and the Pakistan Army in AJK. These elements have lost public support in AJK. Life is running normally in AJK, which is a big setback for such elements. To remain alive in public view, they raise such false news. I have seen this pattern before. When a group loses its street support, it looks for a new issue to stay relevant. When it cannot win elections, it looks for a new slogan to attract attention. When it cannot deliver on the ground, it looks for a new rumour to create noise. The province rumour is exactly that kind of noise. It is a manufactured controversy. It is designed to give oxygen to groups that are otherwise fading away. The normal life in AJK, the schools, the markets, the offices, the daily routine of ordinary people, shows that the vast majority is not interested in their agenda. The vast majority wants peace, development, and a resolution of the Kashmir dispute in line with the wishes of the Kashmiri people.
The same mentality prevails in Pakistan. The elements which did not get a share in government start working and speaking against the state. The examples of PTI and Maulana Fazlur Rehman are in front of us. One side marched on Islamabad and created chaos on the streets. The other side sat in protests and tried to paralyse the system. Their methods are different but their mentality is the same. It is the mentality of those who cannot accept the result and who try to destabilise the state instead of serving the people. The same mentality is in AJK, where the elements could not achieve what they wanted to achieve. Now they intend to put the government under pressure by such tactics. They are spreading false propaganda that the current setup is going to change the status of AJK, just to disturb the minds of people. They hope that if people become scared and angry, the government will become weak and the streets will become theirs. This is a cheap trick. It has been used before. It has failed before. It will fail again.
Basically, such heinous actions are done for their own political agendas or on the agendas of our enemies. We should not be naive about this. Every rumour that damages the unity of Pakistan and AJK serves someone. It serves the political elements who want to pressure the government. It serves the enemy who wants to divide our people. It serves the propaganda machine that wants to show that all is not well in AJK. If Pakistan wanted to make AJK a province, then it would have started from Gilgit-Baltistan, where there might be relatively less opposition to such an action. Gilgit-Baltistan has been moving towards a more defined status for years. There are debates about its constitutional position. Yet even there, the process has been slow and careful. It has been slow because the leadership understands the sensitivity of the region. It has been careful because the leadership understands the international implications. If a relatively simpler case has taken years, why would a far more sensitive case be done in days? But logically, at the moment, for me it seems very clear that Pakistan will not even think about making AJK a province. Such an action will put a wrong effect on the international level. It will also affect Pakistan’s remarkable diplomacy and credibility, which Pakistan earned after a huge struggle.
I want to explain the international angle in some detail because it is central to my argument. Pakistan’s diplomacy on Kashmir has been consistent and principled. It rests on UN resolutions, on the right of self-determination, and on the rejection of unilateral action by India. Pakistan has argued for years that the final status of Kashmir must be decided by the people of Kashmir through a free and fair plebiscite. This position has been repeated in every forum. It has been defended in the United Nations, in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, and in bilateral talks with many countries. Pakistan earned credibility by standing firm on these principles. That credibility is not easily built and should not be easily wasted. If Pakistan were to take a unilateral step on AJK, it would undermine the very argument it makes against India’s unilateral step of August 5, 2019. The world would see a contradiction. India would exploit that contradiction. Pakistan’s friends would be confused. The Kashmiri cause would suffer. The leadership of Pakistan understands this reality very well. That is why the rumour does not match the behaviour of the state. Pakistan’s current international diplomacy is on different lines. It is not available to justify to the world on the issue of making AJK a province. It is very clear that there exist some elements in AJK to which such a situation suits. They want to create further instability in AJK by spreading such non-logical propaganda.
Pakistan has given special status to AJK in compliance with UN resolutions. India, on the other hand, has snatched that status from the people of IIOJK. This is the clear difference between the heinous and dirty approach of India and the wise and remarkable approach of Pakistan for Kashmir. India acted in secrecy and in haste. It took away the special status of the people without asking them. It deployed troops. It imposed a lockdown. It silenced the voices of the people. Pakistan, by contrast, has kept the question open for the people of Kashmir. It has not imposed a solution. It has not made a unilateral decision. It has said, from day one, that the people of Kashmir have the right to decide their future. That is the difference. If Pakistan were to make AJK a province now, it would blur that difference. It would lose the moral high ground. It would hand India a ready-made argument. The diplomats and legal experts who have worked on this issue for years understand this well. That is why no serious official quarter has confirmed the claims being circulated on social media.
The silence of the official side is itself an answer to the rumours. The few print media outlets that carried the claim did so without any documentary evidence. Social media, as we know, runs on speed rather than accuracy. A single post can become a trend within hours, and a trend can look like public opinion even when it is only noise. I have seen this happen so many times. A screenshot is shared. A fake quote is attributed to a minister. A self-made video is presented as proof. People forward it without thinking. Within a day it becomes the talk of the town. Within two days it becomes a “news item”. Within three days people start saying “they are going to do it”. This is how rumours are built. But a rumour is not a policy. A trend is not a decision. And noise is not consensus. The media also has a responsibility here. Print media outlets that published the claim without verification gave it a respectability it did not deserve. Social media users who shared it without thinking added fuel to the fire. The result was confusion among ordinary people. The result was anxiety among families whose sons serve in the Pakistan Army and whose hearts are with Pakistan. The result was exactly what the anti-state elements wanted. This is why we must all be careful. We must check the source. We must ask for evidence. We must trust the official institutions. We must not become tools in the hands of those who wish to divide us.
There is also the question of consensus within AJK itself. The people of AJK have their own political parties, their own legislative assembly, their own courts, and their own institutions. Any change in their status would require their consent and their participation. It would require a debate in their assembly. It would require a national consensus in Pakistan as well. The current discussion about new provinces in Pakistan shows how difficult and slow such a process is. The provinces of Pakistan are not created by a tweet or a television ticker. They are created by constitutional amendment, by political agreement, and by administrative preparation. The same standard applies to AJK. The claim that this is being done quietly, soon, and without public knowledge is therefore not believable. It is against the very rules of how states make such decisions. And I would add one more thing. The people of AJK are not passive observers of their own future. They have a voice. They have a vote. They have an opinion. Any attempt to change their status without consulting them would be rejected by them. That rejection would be justified. It would be powerful. It would be the first obstacle any such plan would have to cross.
The mental exercise behind the rumour is not hard to see. The aim is to create doubt. The aim is to create fear. The aim is to create a gap between the people of AJK and the institutions of Pakistan. The banned JAAC and the nationalist elements have tried this before. They have failed before. They will fail again. Their public support has shrunk to the point where they need artificial controversies to stay visible. They cannot speak of their performance because they have no performance to show. They cannot speak of their plans because they have no plans. So they speak of fear. They speak of uncertainty. They speak of secret plans being hatched in Islamabad. This is old politics. It is the politics of paranoia. It is the politics of the powerless. The people have seen through it. The people have identified such elements. They have shown complete isolation from these elements and from their dirty agendas. The public response itself is proof that the rumour has failed to find roots. People in AJK know what they have with Pakistan. They know what they would lose if they fell for such rumours. The unity between AJK and Pakistan is not a slogan only. It is a lived reality, visible in everyday life and in the sacrifices made for the Kashmir cause.
I also want to say something about the timing of this rumour. It did not appear at a random moment. It appeared at a time when the political scene in Pakistan is crowded. The government is busy with economic challenges. The opposition is busy with its own campaigns. The international scene is sensitive. In such moments, rumours find space because attention is divided. The rumour-mongers know this. They pick their moments carefully. They wait for the noise of other issues to cover their own. They launch their little fire when the fire brigade is busy elsewhere. But the timing also tells us something else. It tells us that the rumour is not an accident. It is a planned act. It is a deliberate attempt to create maximum confusion with minimum effort. That is why I call it propaganda and not a simple mistake. A mistake is corrected when facts emerge. Propaganda is repeated even when facts are clear. The repetition itself is the strategy. The aim is to make people tired of the facts. The aim is to make people say “there must be something in it”. The aim is to erode trust slowly. That is why we must be alert. We must not give the rumour the space it seeks.
The current environment, as I said, is not favourable for any such decision. The economy is under pressure. The political scene is busy with many issues. The diplomatic front is sensitive. The Kashmir issue is at a delicate stage. This is not the time for experiments. This is the time for unity and patience. The people of AJK have shown this unity. They have shown this patience. They have rejected the rumour and the rumour-mongers. The anti-state elements have been exposed. Their dirty intentions have been laid bare. The people have identified them and have shown complete isolation from them and from their dirty agendas. The future of Kashmir will be decided by the people of Kashmir, in line with UN resolutions, and with the support of Pakistan. It will not be decided by social media trends or by the wishful thinking of failed political elements. It will not be decided by a few people sitting in a room and drawing lines on a map. It will be decided by history, by justice, and by the will of the people. Pakistan’s role in that future is clear. Pakistan will stand with the people of Kashmir. Pakistan will defend their right to decide. Pakistan will not do what India did. That is the promise. That is the principle. And that principle will not be broken for the sake of a short-term political trick.
The claim that AJK is about to become a province is false propaganda. It has no logical basis. It contradicts Pakistan’s principled position on Kashmir. It ignores the need for homework and consensus. It ignores the international implications. It serves the agenda of anti-state elements and of our enemies. It aims to create chaos, anarchy, division, and hate. The people of AJK have rejected it. The people of AJK know that their future is with Pakistan. The day will come, inshallah very soon, when IIOJK will be freed from Indian illegal occupation and the whole of Kashmir will become a part of Pakistan. Until then, we must remain united and vigilant. We must reject rumours. We must trust our institutions. We must keep the Kashmir cause above all other considerations. We must remember that our strength lies in unity and our weakness lies in division. The rumour-mongers know this too. That is why they try to divide us. We will not let them succeed. That is the wise path. That is the path of Pakistan. That is the path the people of AJK have chosen, and no false propaganda can change that.
