The Iran war and elections in both countries have exposed the political cost of an alliance once treated as untouchable.
Qamar Bashir
The alliance has not ended, but its old immunity has. Donald Trump now says the United States will stop giving Israel nearly $4 billion a year. His party has lost both houses of Congress after an Iran war that most Americans oppose. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his parliamentary majority, and his rival has been asked to form a government. In the space of days, the two leaders who took their countries into war have discovered that even their closest political partnership has a price.
Israel’s election delivered neither man a majority. Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset; Gadi Eisenkot’s alliance won 48. Two Arab-led parties won a record 19 and endorsed Eisenkot. President Isaac Herzog announced on Saturday that he would give Eisenkot, rather than Netanyahu, the mandate to form the next government at 5 p.m. on Sunday. Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister while the talks proceed. Arab voters have given his opponents a possible route to power.
Israel’s election delivered neither man a majority. Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset; Gadi Eisenkot’s alliance won 48. But when President Isaac Herzog consulted the parties, 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot, including all 19 members of the two Arab-led parties. Netanyahu received just 46 recommendations. United Torah Judaism, a seven-seat party long allied with him, declined to recommend anyone, exposing a crack in his own bloc. Herzog announced on Saturday that he would give Eisenkot the mandate to form the next government at 5 p.m. on Sunday. Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister while the talks proceed.
Netanyahu’s removal would not close the book on his conduct. He is already on trial on corruption charges, which he denies. Eisenkot’s bloc wants to replace the Knesset speaker, reverse Netanyahu-era judicial changes and establish a state commission of inquiry into the failures surrounding the October 7, 2023, attack. Israelis also deserve an accounting of Netanyahu’s policy of permitting Qatari payments into Hamas-run Gaza. Reporting has raised serious questions about warnings over the possible diversion of funds; Netanyahu’s office disputes the account. Questions that demand investigation must not be converted into a verdict before evidence is tested.
Across the Atlantic, the electoral verdict was less ambiguous. Democrats won control of the House and Senate in the November 3 midterms. Vice President JD Vance wrote, “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.” He named four demands he believed had moved former Trump voters: end the Iran war, confront inflation, put America first and change the relationship with Israel. Trump was less categorical, conceding, “Iran was a piece of it,” while insisting he would make the same decision again. Their dispute over emphasis cannot hide the admission: the war and the alliance that helped produce it have become electoral liabilities.
The Iran war has lasted far longer than Trump promised. A Pew survey in early October found 65 percent of Americans disapproved of his handling of it. Families experience war through more than casualty reports: energy prices, transport costs and public money that cannot be spent twice. Voters asked why Washington could find resources for another Middle Eastern campaign while they struggled with rent, health insurance, food and car payments.
Trump’s answer on Election Day was startling. He said he and Netanyahu had agreed months earlier to stop the annual aid by the end of 2026: “They don’t need it.” He also called the payments a “bad talking point” for Republicans. Israeli finance and defense officials said the sudden announcement caught them by surprise. The existing agreement provides $3.8 billion annually through fiscal 2028, and Congress controls appropriations. Trump promised continued arms sales and help if Israel needs it. Ambassador Mike Huckabee says Washington wants a relationship of trade instead of aid, but admits the cutoff date is unclear. That is a political rupture, not yet a completed financial separation.
The $4 billion question is now impossible to evade. Israel is a wealthy, technologically advanced country with universal healthcare, a strong education system, modern infrastructure and substantial investment in research. Yet the United States continues to send billions in military aid while American families struggle to pay for medical care, education, housing and insurance.
Politicians and commentators are asking why taxpayers in a country without universal healthcare must finance a prosperous ally that provides it to its own people. At times, it looks as if a third-world country is providing aid to a first-class country. Trump’s promise to end the payments reflects the force of that question.
This is not an abstract argument about budgets. By the Census Bureau’s supplemental measure, which accounts for taxes, benefits and essential expenses, 13.1 percent of Americans lived in poverty in 2025. The Federal Reserve found that only 63 percent of adults would cover an unexpected $400 expense entirely with cash or its equivalent, while 26 percent skipped medical care because of cost. For families living from one paycheck to the next, every dollar sent abroad invites a blunt question: why can Washington guarantee billions for Israel while so many Americans cannot afford the basics at home?
America’s claim to police the world is losing its force. Trump tried to bring China to its knees with tariffs; Beijing hit back with trade measures and its command of rare earth supplies, compelling Washington to bargain. Europe stood against his ambitions in Greenland, Canada resisted his economic threats, and Cuba has refused to submit to pressure. Iran has endured sanctions and the combined military assault of the United States and Israel without surrendering. Trump sent the world’s most powerful military to impose his will on Tehran. Iran’s refusal has exposed the limits of that power before the entire world.
That failure has changed the balance of power in the Middle East. Netanyahu faces the prospect of losing office after a war that failed to break Iran; Trump faces a Democratic Congress and voters demanding an end to the war and a new relationship with Israel. Iran has emerged from the assault with its government and capacity to resist intact. Turkey is asserting its own regional weight. Pakistan, with its nuclear deterrent, capable air force, missile systems and experienced army, is another power whose influence cannot be ignored. Israel can no longer count on an unlimited American subsidy or assume that Washington can impose its preferred order on the region by force.
The United States has not yet parted ways with Israel in the literal sense. What is breaking is the belief that its support must be unconditional, permanent and immune from the judgment of Americans. Trump can still reverse himself; Eisenkot can still fail; Congress can still preserve the aid. But the political bargain that protected it has been exposed. If Washington now chooses domestic renewal over endless war, and a relationship with Israel governed by accountability rather than entitlement, this election will mark the beginning of a genuine parting of ways.
The writer is Press Secretary to the President (Rtd), Former Press Minister, Embassy of Pakistan to France , Former Press Attaché to Malaysia and Former MD, SRBC.He is living in Michigan, USA
