Mansoor Nizamani
Israel’s post-election political landscape has turned government formation into a major political challenge. According to the announced results of the parliamentary elections held on October 27, 2026, no political bloc has secured the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority. Benjamin Netanyahu’s conservative bloc has won 53 seats, while the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot has secured 48 seats. The most striking outcome, however, is the performance of Arab parties, which have collectively won 19 seats, significantly increasing their political influence. Under these circumstances, the future of power in Israel will depend not only on the performance of the two major political blocs but also on the strategies of smaller parties capable of influencing the formation of the next government. The question of who will govern Israel is now closely linked to political negotiations and coalition bargaining.
Benjamin Netanyahu has remained one of the most experienced and influential figures in Israeli politics. Throughout his long political career, he has returned to power several times and demonstrated his ability to navigate various political crises. However, this election has presented a serious challenge to his political future. The failure of the conservative alliance led by his Likud Party to secure a majority suggests that a significant section of the electorate is dissatisfied with the current political direction. The war in Gaza, the issue of securing the release of hostages, controversies surrounding judicial reforms and disagreements over military conscription have kept Netanyahu’s government under sustained pressure. His biggest challenge now is to maintain unity among his political allies and secure support from opposition parties. For Netanyahu, retaining power is not merely a matter of political survival; it is also essential for maintaining the continuity of his policies.
Meanwhile, the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot will need to develop a strong political strategy to form the next government. Despite securing 48 seats, the alliance remains short of the required majority. Differences over national security, religious affairs and policies towards Palestine continue to divide several opposition parties. Bringing these groups together under a single political platform will not be an easy task. Simply opposing Netanyahu will not be enough to form a government; the opposition must also present a shared programme for the country’s future. In this situation, support from Arab parties could prove crucial. However, the question remains whether Eisenkot can maintain an alliance among parties with different political ideologies. If the opposition manages to overcome its internal differences, it may have a realistic opportunity to reach power.
The most significant political development in these elections has been the increased representation of Arab parties. The combined 19 seats secured by the Joint List and Ra’am have created a new balance in Israel’s parliamentary politics. Israel’s Arab Palestinian population has long faced challenges related to economic deprivation, employment, housing, basic public services and political equality. The increased participation of Arab voters indicates their growing determination to address these issues through parliamentary politics. Without their support, it will be difficult for the opposition to secure a majority. However, reservations among several Zionist parties about forming a government with Arab parties have complicated the political process. The real test for Arab parties will be their ability to transform parliamentary representation into meaningful political influence. Economic development, civil rights and a clear position on the Palestinian issue are likely to remain among their key demands.
Ultra-Orthodox religious parties will also play an important role in the formation of the next government. Parties such as Shas and United Torah Judaism have traditionally been important allies of Netanyahu, but their political priorities could change under the current circumstances. The issue of exempting religious students from compulsory military service has become a major source of disagreement between these parties and other political forces. If they abandon Netanyahu and support the opposition, the entire political equation could change. President Isaac Herzog will also have an important constitutional role. Following consultations with political parties, he may nominate the candidate who appears most capable of forming a government and securing parliamentary support. If no political bloc succeeds in obtaining the required backing, Israel could face another political crisis and potentially return to the polls.
Israel’s domestic politics cannot be separated from the wider situation in the Middle East. Tensions with Iran, the ongoing crisis in Gaza, security concerns along the Lebanese border and the activities of the Houthi movement in Yemen will present major challenges for the next government. A return of Netanyahu’s alliance to power could mean continuity in its hardline approach towards Iran and its military strategy. By contrast, the opposition may seek to place greater emphasis on diplomacy and regional cooperation. The reported voter turnout of 77.9 per cent is also politically significant, demonstrating the importance Israelis attach to the country’s political direction, national security and leadership. However, the failure of any bloc to secure a clear majority despite high voter participation highlights the deep political divisions within Israeli society. Religious and nationalist forces remain influential, while secular and liberal groups continue to push for a different political direction. The demands of the Arab population can no longer be easily ignored.
Overall, these elections represent a test not only of Netanyahu’s political future but also of the resilience of Israel’s democratic system. Netanyahu still possesses political experience, a strong party and established political connections, but he will have to satisfy his allies to retain power. On the other hand, Eisenkot must find a way to unite different ideological forces and build a viable governing coalition. Arab parties could play a decisive role in this entire process, provided their political support is taken seriously. The reality is that securing the highest number of seats is not enough to form a government in Israel. Political alliances, compromise and the ability to command a parliamentary majority are equally essential. The coming days will reveal whether Netanyahu succeeds in retaining power or whether Israeli politics moves towards new leadership and a new political era. One thing is certain: Arab parties will hold considerable significance in the formation of Israel’s next government.
